Senate Forecast 2018 — senate_national_forecast • fivethirtyeight

This file contains links to the data behind FiveThirtyEight's 'Senate forecasts' https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

senate_national_forecast

Format

A dataframe with 450 rows representing national-level results of the classic, lite, and deluxe Senate forecasts since Aug. 1, 2018 and 11 variables

forecastdate: date of the forecast
party: the party of the forecast
model: the model of the forecast
win_probability: the probability of the corresponding party winning
mean_seats: the mean of the number of seats
median_seats: the median number of seats
p10_seats: the top 10 percentile of number of seats
p90_seats: the top 90 percentile of number of seats
margin: unknown
p10_margin: the margin of p10_seats
p90_margin: the margin of p90_seats

Source

FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Methodology: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/

Note

The original dataset included a meaningless column called "state", and all variables under this column was "US". So this column was removed.

See also

senate_seat_forecast