The raw data behind the story 'Forecasting the races for governor' https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

governor_national_forecast

Format

A dataframe with 150 rows representing national-level results of the classic, lite, and deluxe gubernatorial forecasts since Oct. 11, 2018. and 11 variables

forecastdate

date of the forecast

party

the party of the forecast

model

the model of the forecast

win_probability

the probability of the corresponding party winning

mean_seats

the mean of the number of seats

median_seats

the median number of seats

p10_seats

the top 10 percentile of number of seats

p90_seats

the top 90 percentile of number of seats

margin

unknown

p10_margin

the margin of p10_seats

p90_margin

the margin of p90_seats

Source

FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Methodology: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/

Note

The original dataset included a meaningless column called "state", and all variables under this column was "US". So this column was removed.

governor_state_forecast