How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works

The raw data behind the story "How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/.

hist_senate_preds

Format

A data frame with 207 rows representing US state elections and 5 variables:

state

Election

year

Year of election

candidate

Last name

forecast_prob

Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast

result

`Win` or `Loss`

Source

See https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/forecast-methodology